FPLTOK #44 | The Mounting Injury Crisis

Big strategic calls await as GW12 looks increasingly difficult to manage.

We’re now almost a quarter of the way through the season. Usually by this point, we start to see big gaps opening up between key rank levels, resulting in less fluidity in rank movements. But not this year. 

Staggeringly, the difference between 10K and 200K is just 38 points. And the difference between 1M and 200K is just 34 points. These are small gaps, particularly when we consider the fact there are still two wildcards to go, plus a number of blank and double Gameweeks. 

The message here is don’t be disheartened if you’re in the millions. A high finish is more than possible. Haaland’s perma-captaincy does make life more difficult if you’re chasing, but there’s more than one way to skin a cat. With ranks this tight, it only takes a couple of smart differential moves to make a big jump up the leaderboards. 

Chaos - the great friend of the chaser - is also now firmly here. GW12 looks set to be a car crash for many, providing an opportunity to make gains. If you’ve been light on City and Arsenal in recent weeks, this could be your chance to make up some ground.

Q: Is Reece James a sell? If so, who’s the best replacement? 

A: The latest out of Cobham is that Reece could be back for GW12. 

I’ll admit, this doesn’t fill me with confidence. Wednesday next week would be a very quick turnaround, and Potter shouldn’t have any reason to rush him. Of course, everything we’re hearing about James’ condition is rumour and speculationat this point. We ultimately need to hear something more concrete in today’s press conference. 

In any case, I suspect there will be doubts about James’ involvement in GW12, and I would personally be surprised if he makes the starting XI vs Brentford. If you need a nailed-on starting defender for GW12, then I would consider selling him this week. 

The list, though, of viable defensive replacements is short. Despite taking Chilwell myself last week (huge error), I wouldn’t advise opting for a Chelsea defender as a like-for-like swap. Potter has already shown his willingness to rotate heavily, and Chelsea have very short turnaround times between games over the next week. Chilwell and Cucurella will likely split the next two GWs. 

Perisic could be an option for the brave among us. But he’s an enormous minutes risk, and the fixtures get tricky after GW11. Plus, if you’re selling James this week, it’s an opportunity to move money out of defence - money that you can plow into the midfield in GW13. 

With this in mind, I would look at £4.5M options, including Dunk, Webster, and Geuhi. As I said, it’s a short list, and it really means giving up on the Big at the Back strategy - likely until we resume after the World Cup in GW17.

This money may be needed when we consider the new likely makeup of the GW13 template. Foden and Saka will be popular picks, as will some combination of Jesus and Darwin/Jota. This will require heavy spending in the forward positions, meaning Cancelo may be the only viable premium defender. 

Alternatively, given current lack of defensive options (and depending on your squad depth), James could be a hold if you can get through GW11 with your bench - before reassessing ahead of the blank Gameweek. Potter’s comments today will be key. 

Q: Is Salah a sell? 

A: Not for me. 

Selling Salah at a time like this would be the height of luxury. Crucially, he’s already been rotated, appearing in the Champions League as a 68th minute sub in Liverpool’s second half rout of Rangers (a rout which Salah led). I think he’ll start each of the next three - and right now, you can’t ask for much more than that. 

If you own, he’s a hold. If you don’t own, he’s a wait and see for GW12. If there are signs of life in the Liverpool attack vs City, he could be the primary transfer and captaincy target for the blank Gameweek. 

What’s more, with talk of Harvey Elliot getting a start in the near future, there’s every chance Salah starts one of the next three in a central position. Plus, the absence of Trent could lead to Salah naturally occupying more central positions. 

Admittedly, I want to see Salah register more than one penalty area touch against City (his average position vs Arsenal was around the halfway line!) - but a blank at the weekend wouldn’t turn him into a sell in my view. West Ham, Forest, and Leeds is a nice upcoming run, especially for a 90 minute man.

Q: Is Free Hit viable for GW12? 

A: Ordinarily, I would recommend doing whatever you can to save the FH for the second half of the season. But GW12 is unique.

Not only are we missing assets from the two best teams in the league, but we’re also looking at injuries to a number of highly-owned assets - as well as the very real prospect of midweek rotation. 

If you’re heavy on Arsenal and City (five or six players), and you’re carrying the likes of James and Mitrovic, then two Free Transfers might not be enough to put you in good shape for the blank. 

What’s more, committing to FH12 means you don’t need to waste any transfers in GW11 offloading City and Arsenal assets. You can instead use your transfer this week more strategically, and emerge in GW13 ready to attack the fixture with the likes of Foden, Cancelo, Martinelli, Jesus and Saka. 

The issue, though, with free hitting in 12 is the quality of the fixtures. It’s ultimately a low upside move.

We don’t have many red hot attacking teams up against defensively weak strugglers, and I think this reduces the points ceiling and the chip’s effectiveness. Although it could get you out of a tough spot, I don’t think free hitters will massively outscore those who play through the chaos with Free Transfers. 

Looking ahead, I think the FH template would look something like this: 

Guaita

Trippier - Chilwell - Robertson

Salah © - Mount- Trossard - Maddison

Wilson - Darwin - Kane

Yes, there are some nice differentials here, particularly Darwin, Mount, Trossard, Chilwell and Kane. And maybe it would outscore your regular team by 20-25 points, depending on the injury situation at the time. But I think there are more points to be had with this chip later in the season. 

Play it now, and you may regret it later. But I appreciate that FH12 will be almost unavoidable for some. 

Q: Any advice for GW11 differentials? 

A: Given how tight things are in the overall rankings, it’s no surprise that people are looking for differential options. One big haul from a <5% owned player can be worth a couple of hundred thousand rank places. 

This was certainly my thinking with Chilwell last week — but let that be a lesson. It’s all very well looking for those high-upside players, but we need to consider the floor as well as the ceiling. 

Sticking with Chelsea, though, I think Mount is probably the best differential right now. He and Kepa are the only Chelsea players yet to be benched under Potter. Of course, given Chelsea’s particularly-bad fixture congestion, a rest could be imminent for Mount - but I’d be surprised if he didn’t start at least two of the next three.

Mount is famously a “flat track bully”, and upcoming ties against Villa and Brentford certainly look appealing. He’s also been instrumental in Potter’s setup. Over the last two GWs, Mount has registered six shots in the box, an xGi of 0.83, and seven chances created.

Another differential I would consider is Jota. Although the GW11 fixture should be avoided, Liverpool’s upcoming run is favourable, and I can see Jota registering consistent minutes in Diaz’s absence.